The 2023 General Election: Canceled, Quitting, and Not Quitting
A more in depth examination of the results of the first round is needed to understand what political players have reached their end, and who are likely to endure another round.
A more in depth examination of the results of the first round is needed to understand what political players have reached their end, and who are likely to endure another round.
Canceled
The Movement for the People's Liberation (MLP) will be canceled. MLP failed to register the candidacy of indigenous activist Thelma Cabrera, who had a surprising fourth place (more than 10% of the vote) in the General Elections of 2019. MLP failed to have a successful campaign for Congress, as they did not elect a single representative. Their municipal campaign was also a disappointment, as they claimed victory in only two municipalities. The two other parties which were not able to register their presidential candidates, Podemos with Roberto Arzú and Prosperidad Ciudadana with Carlos Pineda, are most likely going to be canceled.
Despite being one of the oldest parties in the electoral system, the National Advancement Party (PAN) will be canceled after failing to register a presidential candidate and not being able to elect a single representative to Congress. It is estimated that about a dozen of parties are to be canceled, including FCN, the ruling party in the government of Jimmy Morales.
Quitting
It is hard to foresee another presidential candidacy of Edmund Mulet (in 2019 he placed third with 11.2% of the vote; in 2023, he placed fourth with 8.9% of the vote), Isaac Farchi (in 2019 he placed sixth with 5.9% of the vote; in 2023, he placed 13th, with 1.1% of the vote), and Manuel Villacorta (in 2019, he placed 7th with 5.2% of the vote; in 2023, he again placed 7th with 4.2% of the vote). Francisco Arredondo (CREO), Julio Claverí (Mi Familia), Rafael Espada (PR), Luis Lam (PN), Rudio Lecsán Mérida (PHG), Samuel Morales (FCN), Amilcar Pop (WINAQ), Giovanny Reyes (BIEN), Ricardo Sagastume (TODOS), Guilio Talamonti (UR), and Alvaro Trujillo (CAMBIO) are unlikely to compete again.
It is likely that the political parties VAMOS, CABAL, Unionista, VOS, BIEN, URNG, WINAQ, Todos, Azul, CREO and CAMBIO are going to actively start looking for their next presidential candidate.
Not Quitting
It is likely that Sandra Torres, Manuel Conde, Armando Castillo, Zury Rios, Amilcar Rivera, Rudy Guzmán and Hugo Peña will keep their chances of running for President again with their parties. As parties, it is notable that UNE, VAMOS, VIVA, VALOR, and Todos performed well enough to keep their bases energized.
Promising
Even though there are plenty of committees trying to establish new parties, it is easier for existing parties to compete, as they have tested the field and know the regulations. The good news is that competition for president is wide open for the next General Election.
The 2023 General Election: Canceled, Quitting, and Not Quitting
A more in depth examination of the results of the first round is needed to understand what political players have reached their end, and who are likely to endure another round.
A more in depth examination of the results of the first round is needed to understand what political players have reached their end, and who are likely to endure another round.
Canceled
The Movement for the People's Liberation (MLP) will be canceled. MLP failed to register the candidacy of indigenous activist Thelma Cabrera, who had a surprising fourth place (more than 10% of the vote) in the General Elections of 2019. MLP failed to have a successful campaign for Congress, as they did not elect a single representative. Their municipal campaign was also a disappointment, as they claimed victory in only two municipalities. The two other parties which were not able to register their presidential candidates, Podemos with Roberto Arzú and Prosperidad Ciudadana with Carlos Pineda, are most likely going to be canceled.
Despite being one of the oldest parties in the electoral system, the National Advancement Party (PAN) will be canceled after failing to register a presidential candidate and not being able to elect a single representative to Congress. It is estimated that about a dozen of parties are to be canceled, including FCN, the ruling party in the government of Jimmy Morales.
Quitting
It is hard to foresee another presidential candidacy of Edmund Mulet (in 2019 he placed third with 11.2% of the vote; in 2023, he placed fourth with 8.9% of the vote), Isaac Farchi (in 2019 he placed sixth with 5.9% of the vote; in 2023, he placed 13th, with 1.1% of the vote), and Manuel Villacorta (in 2019, he placed 7th with 5.2% of the vote; in 2023, he again placed 7th with 4.2% of the vote). Francisco Arredondo (CREO), Julio Claverí (Mi Familia), Rafael Espada (PR), Luis Lam (PN), Rudio Lecsán Mérida (PHG), Samuel Morales (FCN), Amilcar Pop (WINAQ), Giovanny Reyes (BIEN), Ricardo Sagastume (TODOS), Guilio Talamonti (UR), and Alvaro Trujillo (CAMBIO) are unlikely to compete again.
It is likely that the political parties VAMOS, CABAL, Unionista, VOS, BIEN, URNG, WINAQ, Todos, Azul, CREO and CAMBIO are going to actively start looking for their next presidential candidate.
Not Quitting
It is likely that Sandra Torres, Manuel Conde, Armando Castillo, Zury Rios, Amilcar Rivera, Rudy Guzmán and Hugo Peña will keep their chances of running for President again with their parties. As parties, it is notable that UNE, VAMOS, VIVA, VALOR, and Todos performed well enough to keep their bases energized.
Promising
Even though there are plenty of committees trying to establish new parties, it is easier for existing parties to compete, as they have tested the field and know the regulations. The good news is that competition for president is wide open for the next General Election.