The 2023 General Elections: Some Polls Are Now Part of the Propaganda
There are so many confusing electoral polls out there, that it has gotten difficult to discern which is a legitimate poll and which poll is just part of the electoral propaganda. As a recommendation, a formal poll usually is carried out by an acknowledged pollsters, providing its technical details, backed by some reliable entity, such as a media outlet or a credible organization.
I generally refer to the results of the previous elections as an assessment base. In the 2019 General Elections, the top results for President were as follows: Sandra Torres obtained 25.7% of the vote, Alejandro Giammattei 13.9%, Edmund Mulet 11.4%. Currently, most polls place Torres, Mulet and Zury Rios battling for the first three positions, with a clear distance from the rest of the field.
Most polls differ on what percentage of voter intention each candidate has. Sometimes, the difference between the leaders is greater than the usual 5% margin of error. However, most times the difference is less than that margin of error. It is so confusing. It seems they are polling between their own political base, not the broad voter population.
Therefore, a common sense approach is necessary. Despite so many variables that have happened in the past four years, it is likely that voters' intention has shifted slightly, up or down. A dramatic shift is not common, from an electoral history perspective. It is likely that most candidates are in the vicinity of their previous result. It is expensive to position a candidate nationwide. Newcomers have a hard time getting voters to be familiar with them. Voters do not differ drastically from their preferences.
Today, these candidates seem to be the clear leaders. Tomorrow, things could change. This is exactly what the campaign is about. Like in soccer, some candidates have been pulled a red card. Others are still trying to make their mark. The competition is between those registered as candidates, those in the playing field. Of course, the game would have been different if other things would have happened. But the game is what it is, right now. Voters will decide among the candidates on the ballot on election day. I wish good luck to everyone.